Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 24.814199 26.338976 27.962435 29.828955 31.927558 34.228485 36.961953
2025-12-21 22.629175 24.728632 27.086427 29.964197 33.430214 37.536858 42.878265
2025-12-28 21.434432 23.861051 26.682382 30.268279 34.803575 40.499397 48.467108
2026-01-04 20.067031 22.617945 25.654455 29.624677 34.826660 41.652591 51.768912
2026-01-11 19.499282 22.259435 25.626173 30.162459 36.340120 44.859487 58.385779
2026-01-18 18.905566 21.807813 25.420127 30.412760 37.444515 47.587518 64.784593
2026-01-25 18.083358 21.008826 24.701198 29.896569 37.392944 48.572283 68.516617
2026-02-01 17.338238 20.263841 24.000013 29.337849 37.203201 49.285514 71.879619
2026-02-08 16.419932 19.251534 22.890382 28.132052 35.944598 48.144706 71.580565
2026-02-15 16.242664 19.195768 23.051172 28.722396 37.429672 51.632948 81.015730
2026-02-22 15.983276 19.015039 23.026038 29.032658 38.496600 54.552172 90.194901
2026-03-01 15.447208 18.440557 22.428186 28.456272 38.086182 54.777608 93.353531
2026-03-08 14.618268 17.507015 21.380254 27.287588 36.849605 53.771082 94.481621
2026-03-15 14.230697 17.165065 21.156874 27.368690 37.733150 56.998352 108.237443
2026-03-22 13.939967 16.934500 21.067793 27.633003 38.939485 61.106876 127.474442
2026-03-29 13.440940 16.390436 20.493454 27.083610 38.633839 61.980180 137.160088
2026-04-05 13.261440 16.283861 20.548843 27.542202 40.212315 67.396032 169.664530
2026-04-12 13.029995 16.091118 20.462186 27.755237 41.351117 72.127603 207.706250
2026-04-19 12.649140 15.668491 20.007448 27.315632 41.156346 73.459585 230.646713
2026-04-26 12.283563 15.255079 19.548504 26.838791 40.835699 74.400207 254.010574
2026-05-03 11.801650 14.659116 18.789250 25.806073 39.290367 71.685339 246.209541
2026-05-10 11.718558 14.640319 18.915084 26.312302 40.983772 78.592102 342.096876
2026-05-17 11.582946 14.538555 18.905738 26.577877 42.203840 84.610292 480.468927